BRENT: -
WTI: -
NAT GAS: -
EUR/USD: -
GBP/USD: -
USD/CNY: -
USD/INR: -
USD/JPY: -
HORMUZ: STAND-DOWN ACTIVE / MINES REMAIN / Day 128 afternoon / STAND-DOWN HOLDING -- NO ALERT-LEVEL DEVELOPMENTS / FRANCE DEPLOYS 2 MINEHUNTERS + 2 FRIGATES + 1 MPA TO REGION, OMAN AGREES TO SECURE TERRITORIAL WATERS WITH UK/FRANCE -- NO CONFIRMED STRAIT/OMANI-WATERS ENTRY, NO IRANIAN REACTION YET / IRAN REAFFIRMS CLEARANCE SOLELY BY IRAN, REJECTS FRANCE OFFER / VESSEL TRANSITS: SOURCES INCONSISTENT, 24-40/DAY RANGE VS 34-45 BASELINE / DOHA RESUMPTION FIRMS TO ~JUL 11 -- PROCEDURAL, NOT A BREAKDOWN / KATZ 48-HOUR WINDOW STILL UNRESOLVED / CENTRAL CHANNEL: ~80 MINES PENDING AUTHORIZATION -- NONE GRANTED / DEAL COLLAPSE: 35-45% (UNCHANGED) / Physical reopening: LATE AUGUST IF MID-JULY MINE CLEARANCE; Q4 2026 BASE CASE
SUEZ: Normal / 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA: Normal / 16.3M bbl/d

Emergency Alerts

Flash briefs for time-sensitive developments affecting energy markets and maritime operations.

ALERT CRITICAL June 28, 2026

Iran Widens War: Missiles and Drones Strike Bahrain and Kuwait

Iran launched drone and missile strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait overnight, the first Iranian kinetic attacks on US-allied Gulf states since the February war began. Both countries activated air defenses. Iran threatens a complete halt to Burgenstock negotiations.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 27, 2026

US Strikes Iran: CENTCOM Hits Missile, Radar Sites in First Kinetic Response

CENTCOM conducted overnight strikes against Iranian missile storage and coastal radar infrastructure, the first direct US military action against Iran in the 120-day Hormuz crisis, in retaliation for the IRGC drone attack on MV Ever Lovely.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 27, 2026

Iran Retaliates: Drones Fired at US Positions After CENTCOM Strikes

Iran fired retaliatory drones at US-linked military positions in the Gulf in response to overnight CENTCOM strikes. No assets hit. Iran formally accuses the US of ceasefire violation and warns of a larger response to any repeat action.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 26, 2026

IRGC Drone Strike on MV Ever Lovely Forces IMO Route Pause

IRGC drone-struck MV Ever Lovely on the Oman/IMO southern corridor, the first kinetic enforcement action since the Islamabad MOU. IMO paused its Hormuz evacuation plan. The last commercially viable alternate route is now effectively closed.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 20, 2026

Pakistan Confirms June 21 Burgenstock Talks; Phase 1 Clock Within Reach

Pakistan confirmed US-Iran technical-level talks will proceed at Burgenstock on June 21, with Qatar and Pakistan as mediators -- 48 hours after Lebanon ceasefire removal of the blocking condition.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 19, 2026

Burgenstock Canceled; IDF Strikes Dahiyeh After 4-Day Pause

Implementation talks did not occur. IDF struck Dahiyeh breaking the post-signing restraint. Lebanon is now the blocking variable for the entire MOU implementation arc.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 19, 2026

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Takes Effect; Iran Formalizes Hormuz Transit Rules

A renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect at 4pm local time Friday, mediated by the US and Qatar with Iranian involvement, removing Iran's stated blocking condition for Phase 1 Burgenstock talks. Separately, Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority published mandatory 48-hour advance notice rules for Hormuz transits.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL June 15, 2026

US-Iran Deal Announced; Trump Orders Blockade Lifted; Signing June 19 in Switzerland

Trump declared the Iran deal complete on June 15, ordered the US naval blockade lifted immediately, and set a formal signing ceremony in Geneva for June 19. Brent fell 5.6% to ~$80. Hormuz reopens within 30 days under Iranian supervision -- not on signing day.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 14, 2026

IDF Strikes Dahiyeh on Signing Day; Geneva MOU Ceremony Shelved

Israel struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut's Dahiyeh district on June 14, the same day VP Vance was scheduled to sign the Iran MOU in Geneva. The in-person ceremony did not happen; Qatari mediators are in Tehran pushing a virtual signing as Iran's FM says the deal 'has never been closer.'

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 13, 2026

Pakistan PM Confirms Final Deal Text; Vance to Geneva Sunday

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif confirms US and Iran agreed on final deal text; VP Vance named to sign in Geneva June 14; Iran FM signals remote signing; IRGC drones continue but all intercepted.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 12, 2026

Trump Claims Iran Deal 'Approved'; Tehran Disputes It; IAEA Declares Breach

Trump cancelled further strikes on Iran June 11, claiming a deal is approved at the highest levels of Iranian leadership and could be signed in Switzerland this weekend; Iran's FM disputes finalization; IAEA declared Iran in NPT breach for the first time in 20 years.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL June 11, 2026

Iran Declares Hormuz Closed; US Fires 49 Tomahawks, 3 Seafarers Dead

Iran executed its June 6 tripwire, declaring Hormuz formally closed to all vessels after a US second strike of 49 Tomahawks; three Indian crew confirmed dead on Settebello, India summoned US Chargé d'Affaires.

Defense Analyst, Energy Strategist, Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 10, 2026

Iran Downs US Apache Over Hormuz; US Strikes 20 Targets; Jordan Hit for First Time

First US aircraft lost to Iranian fire triggers the largest US strike package of the crisis and a three-nation Iranian counterstrike that extends the war's geography to Jordan.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 10, 2026

Trump Orders Second Strike Night; Tanker Hit Off Oman Leaves One Crew Dead

Trump's declared second strike night collides with the IRGC's Hormuz closure tripwire, while a suspected US missile hit on the tanker Settebello marks the probable first seafarer death of the blockade.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 9, 2026

ENFORCEMENT: Houthis Strike Multiple Vessels in Gulf of Aden -- Bab el-Mandeb Now Active Interdiction Zone

Houthis move from declaration to live fire. MV Norderney struck twice, MSC Tavvishi struck, third vessel hit near Djibouti. The Red Sea is now an active interdiction zone for Israeli-linked shipping -- and vessels with ambiguous flag exposure face interdiction risk.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 8, 2026

Iran Fires Missiles at Israel; IDF Strikes Iran -- Ceasefire Clock Resets

Iran fired ~20-30 ballistic missiles at Israel on June 7 -- the first direct attack since the April 8 ceasefire -- after the IDF killed Hezbollah's intelligence chief in Beirut's Dahiyeh. Israel responded with multi-wave strikes inside Iran, including a petrochemical site near Mahshahr. The exchange is active as of June 8 morning.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 8, 2026

Houthis Re-Enter Conflict: Israeli Shipping Banned from Red Sea, Missile at Tel Aviv

Yemen's Houthis fired one ballistic missile at Tel Aviv (intercepted) and declared a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea on June 8 -- breaking their April 8 regional ceasefire compliance and activating the proxy front the SITREP had tracked as the primary Bab el-Mandeb trigger.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 6, 2026

CENTCOM Strikes Goruk Radar Site; 4 IRGC Drones Intercepted at Hormuz Approach

US forces struck a new Iranian radar node at Goruk (Hormozgan province) and Qeshm Island on June 5-6, continuing a sequential degradation campaign against IRGC Hormuz-interdiction infrastructure.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 6, 2026

HIGH: IRGC Fires Seven Ballistic Missiles at US Bases in Kuwait and Bahrain; Explicit Hormuz Closure Threat Issued

IRGC launched seven ballistic missiles at Ali al-Salem Air Base (Kuwait) and US Navy facilities in Bahrain, retaliating for CENTCOM's Goruk/Qeshm strikes, and issued an on-record threat to completely close the Strait of Hormuz.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 4, 2026

US-Brokered Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Framework Announced

Israel and Lebanon reach US-mediated state-level ceasefire framework conditioned on Hezbollah withdrawal from south of Litani River - directly addressing Iran's June 1 stated precondition for resuming MOU talks.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH June 3, 2026

US Strikes Qeshm Island; Iran Hits Kuwait Airport

First US strike on Qeshm Island and first Iranian strike on civilian aviation mark qualitative escalation on Day 96.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH June 3, 2026

IRGC Strikes MSC Panaya Inside Hormuz; Kuwait Expels Iranian Diplomats

IRGC missiles hit Liberian-flagged cargo ship MSC Panaya inside Hormuz; Kuwait confirmed one killed at airport and expelled two Iranian diplomats.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL June 1, 2026

Iran Suspends Talks, Threatens Dual Chokepoint Closure

Iran halts negotiations with the US and threatens complete Hormuz closure plus Bab el-Mandeb activation after Israel orders strikes on Beirut's Dahieh district. Oil surges 7%+.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH May 28, 2026

US and Iran Reach a Tentative 60-Day Deal to Reopen Hormuz, Pending Trump's Signature

US officials say a tentative memorandum would extend the ceasefire 60 days and reopen Hormuz with no tolls in exchange for lifting the US blockade and issuing sanctions waivers. It is unsigned: Trump has not approved it and Iranian state media says it is not finalized.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL May 27, 2026

Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Kuwait; CENTCOM Calls It an 'Egregious Ceasefire Violation'

Iran launched ballistic missiles at Kuwait overnight, intercepted, after US 'self-defense' strikes on Iranian mine-laying boats at Bandar Abbas. CENTCOM called the launch an egregious ceasefire violation. The truce is holding only loosely as deal talks continue.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH May 7, 2026

Kinetic Exchange Across Hormuz, 24 Hours After Trump's 'Progress' Pause

One day after Trump paused the Project Freedom escort mission citing progress, US destroyers and Iranian forces traded fire across the strait. The US struck Bandar Abbas and Qeshm; Iran hit back near Chabahar. Trump calls it a 'love tap' and insists the ceasefire holds.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH April 21, 2026

Trump Extends the Ceasefire Indefinitely; the Strait Stays Shut

Rather than let the two-week truce expire, Trump extended it indefinitely 'until discussions are concluded,' keeping the naval blockade in place. An indefinite ceasefire that freezes a still-closed strait is a stalemate dressed as de-escalation.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 17, 2026

Araghchi Declares Hormuz 'Open to All'; Oil Crashes 11%

A Lebanon ceasefire and an Iranian declaration that Hormuz is 'completely open' triggered the single worst session of the crisis for oil. WTI fell ~12% to $83.85, Brent ~9% to $90.38. But the US port blockade stays, and a verbal opening is not a transit.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 13, 2026

US Blockades Iranian Ports: The Gulf Is Now Sealed From Both Ends

Hours after the Islamabad talks collapsed, the US Navy began blockading Iranian ports under CENTCOM. Layered on Iran's own Hormuz closure, the result is a dual blockade. Oil snapped higher, Brent settling near $99.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL April 9, 2026

Hormuz Re-Closed: Iran Halts Shipping After Israel Kills 254 in Lebanon

Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again within hours of the ceasefire, citing Israel's massacre of 254 in Lebanon as a violation. IRGC says no ships are transiting. Hezbollah resumed rocket fire on northern Israel. Oil rebounding toward $97. Islamabad talks Saturday now the last off-ramp.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL April 8, 2026

Two-Week Ceasefire: Iran Agrees to Reopen Hormuz

Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire hours before the 8 PM ET deadline. Iran will permit 'safe passage' through Hormuz under military coordination. Oil crashed 14-16%. Peace talks expected Friday in Islamabad. But Gulf states reported Iranian drone attacks hours after the announcement.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 7, 2026

US Strikes Kharg Island; Iran Retaliates Against Jubail Petrochemical

US hit 50+ military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub. Iran retaliated by striking Jubail's Sadara and ExxonMobil facilities. WTI surged to $115.8. IRGC declares all targeting restraint lifted.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 6, 2026

Israel Strikes South Pars Petrochemical Complex

Israel struck Iran's South Pars petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh, targeting the Jam and Damavand facilities. Defense Minister Katz claims 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports rendered inoperative.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 3, 2026

WTI Surges 11% in Biggest One-Day Jump in Six Years

WTI crude surged 11.24% to $111.54, its largest single-day gain since 2020. Brent rose 7.78% to $109.03. Markets repriced after Trump's speech promised 'extremely hard' strikes, not a ceasefire.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL April 1, 2026

Iranian Cruise Missile Hits QatarEnergy Tanker in Qatari Waters

Three Iranian cruise missiles fired at Qatar; two intercepted, one struck QatarEnergy-chartered tanker Aqua 1 in Qatari territorial waters. 21 crew evacuated safe. Second tanker hit in 48 hours.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 31, 2026

Iranian Drone Hits Laden Kuwaiti VLCC at Dubai Anchorage

Iranian drone struck fully-laden Kuwait-flagged VLCC Al-Salmi at Dubai port anchorage. Fire erupted on hull. Oil spill risk. 24 crew safe. First loaded tanker hit at a major port in this war.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT HIGH March 28, 2026

IDF Destroys Iran's Main Sea Mine and Naval Missile Factory in Yazd

Israel struck Iran's central facility for producing sea mines and naval missiles in Yazd, dealing a significant blow to the production capability sustaining the Hormuz blockade. Part of Netanyahu's 48-hour arms industry blitz.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 28, 2026

IRGC Blocks Chinese COSCO Ships, Declares Hormuz 'Closed'

Iran's IRGC Navy turned back two Chinese COSCO vessels and a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier near Larak Island, declaring Hormuz closed to all hostile shipping. China's toll regime exemption appears dead.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 28, 2026

Houthis Launch First Missile at Israel, Threatening Bab el-Mandeb Bypass

Yemen's Houthis fired a ballistic missile at southern Israel, their first attack since the war began. Houthi entry threatens the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint and Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass route carrying 2.5M bbl/day.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 27, 2026

Israel Kills IRGC Navy Chief Tangsiri; Brent Surges to $106

Israel killed Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, architect of the Hormuz blockade, in a Bandar Abbas strike. Brent surged 13% from lows to ~$106. Iran's parliament is drafting legislation to formalize Hormuz tolls.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT HIGH March 27, 2026

Trump Extends Energy Strike Pause to April 6; Israel Orders 48-Hour Arms Blitz

Trump extended the energy infrastructure strike deadline 10 days to April 6, claiming Iran requested the pause. Israel is accelerating arms factory strikes before a potential ceasefire.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL March 26, 2026

Iran Rejects US Peace Plan, Demands Hormuz Sovereignty; Brent Hits $93

Iran formally rejected the US 15-point plan and issued a 5-point counteroffer demanding international recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crashed 6.8% intraday to $93.45.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH March 25, 2026

US 15-Point Plan Crashes Brent Below $100; Iran Formalizes Hormuz Access at UN

A US 15-point ceasefire plan sent via Pakistan crashed Brent 5-7% below $100 for the first time since mid-March, while Iran told the UN that non-hostile ships may transit Hormuz.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL March 24, 2026

US-Israeli Strikes Hit Isfahan, Khorramshahr Energy Sites Hours After Trump's Pause Pledge

Strikes targeted Iran's largest thermal power plant in Isfahan (2,500 MW) and Khorramshahr gas facilities (1,100 MW), directly contradicting Trump's stated 5-day pause on energy infrastructure attacks.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL March 23, 2026

Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours to Open Hormuz or Power Plants Burn

Trump threatens to obliterate Iran's power plants if Hormuz not fully reopened within 48 hours. Iran responds: attack our energy and the Strait closes completely. Deadline is Monday 7:44 PM ET.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT HIGH March 23, 2026

Trump Postpones Power Plant Strikes 5 Days, Claims Productive Talks

Trump extends Hormuz ultimatum deadline by 5 days citing back-channel talks via Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. Iran denies any contact, claims Trump retreated. Brent crashes to ~$101, touching $92 intraday.

Geopolitical Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL March 21, 2026

Nuclear Escalation: US Strikes Natanz; Iran Hits Dimona

US/Israel struck Iran's Natanz enrichment facility with bunker buster bombs. Hours later, an Iranian ballistic missile hit Dimona (home to Israel's nuclear research center), wounding 47. First time nuclear facilities targeted on both sides of an active conflict.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 19, 2026

US Launches Aerial Campaign to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The US begins a dedicated aerial campaign specifically targeting Iranian assets threatening the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, 22 nations declare willingness to ensure safe navigation and 6 issue a joint statement committing forces, conditional on ceasefire.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH March 16, 2026

UAE Output Down More Than Half: ADNOC Implements Widespread Shut-Ins

ADNOC implements widespread production shut-ins across the UAE, cutting output by more than half. Combined Gulf production offline now exceeds 7 million barrels per day.

Energy Strategist
ALERT CRITICAL March 13, 2026

Iran Pivots to Selective Blockade: First Non-Shadow Vessel Transits Hormuz

Iran transitions from full Hormuz closure to selective blockade, allowing a Turkish LPG tanker to transit after broadcasting Muslim ownership. The Strait is being converted from an international waterway into a sovereign checkpoint.

Maritime Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 11, 2026

Iran Begins Mining Strait of Hormuz; Three Ships Hit in Single Day

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, converting a drone-enforced closure into a semi-permanent minefield. Three vessels struck by projectiles on March 11, the heaviest single-day attack rate since the crisis began.

Defense Analyst
ALERT CRITICAL March 10, 2026

G7/IEA Authorize Largest-Ever Emergency Oil Release; Brent Crashes 10% to $88

G7 and IEA authorize coordinated release of 300-400M barrels from strategic reserves, the largest intervention in IEA's 52-year history. Brent crashes from $110 to ~$88.60.

Energy Strategist
ALERT HIGH March 9, 2026

France Deploys Carrier-Led Naval Coalition to Reopen Hormuz Transit

France deploying Charles de Gaulle carrier group with allied frigates to escort commercial vessels through Hormuz.

Defense Analyst
ALERT HIGH March 8, 2026

Iran's Assembly of Experts Elects Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader

Dynastic succession in Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader, removing near-term prospect of ceasefire.

Middle East Expert
ALERT CRITICAL March 5, 2026

Clubs Cancel Charterers' War-Risk Extensions; Hormuz Hull Cover Reprices

Six P&I clubs issued cancellation notices on non-poolable charterers' war-risk extensions for Hormuz. Hull war-risk premiums jumped from ~0.2% toward 1.5-5% of hull value, making transit commercially unviable even though core poolable cover stayed in force.

Maritime Analyst