Yemen’s Houthis launched a ballistic missile toward Beersheba on Saturday morning, triggering air raid sirens across the Negev. IDF intercepted the missile. No casualties reported.
Houthi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree declared: “We confirm that our hands are on the trigger for direct military intervention.” The attack marks the Houthis’ first strike on Israel since Operation Roaring Lion began on February 28.
Why This Matters
Hormuz is already closed. Saudi Arabia’s primary bypass runs west through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, currently pushing ~2.5M bbl/day. That oil must then transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which the Houthis control from Yemen’s western coast.
If the Houthis escalate to targeting commercial shipping (as they did in 2024-2025 during the Red Sea crisis), both chokepoints close simultaneously. The bypass that covers ~12-13% of lost Hormuz flow disappears.
Market Impact
Brent closed Friday at $112.57 (+4.22%). WTI touched $100.04 intraday for the first time in the crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14-18/bbl geopolitical risk premium already priced in; Houthi entry adds a second chokepoint premium on top.
What to Watch
Whether the Houthis move from symbolic strikes on Israel to targeting Red Sea shipping. Their anti-ship missile and drone capability is proven from the 2024-2025 campaign. A single attack on a Yanbu-bound tanker would collapse the bypass route and likely push Brent above $120.