BRENT $110.00 +50.7%
WTI $104.50 +48.2%
HORMUZ CLOSED — 20M bbl/d at risk
VLCC $424K/day +ALL-TIME HIGH
BYPASS 5.5M bbl/d spare — 14.5M shortfall
SUEZ Normal — 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA Normal — 16.3M bbl/d
SHIPS WAITING 200+ anchored
BRENT $110.00 +50.7%
WTI $104.50 +48.2%
HORMUZ CLOSED — 20M bbl/d at risk
VLCC $424K/day +ALL-TIME HIGH
BYPASS 5.5M bbl/d spare — 14.5M shortfall
SUEZ Normal — 5.5M bbl/d
MALACCA Normal — 16.3M bbl/d
SHIPS WAITING 200+ anchored

Scenarios

Probabilistic war-gaming of escalation pathways, supply impacts, and price projections.

SCENARIO REPORT March 10, 2026 10 min read

Hormuz Strait Reopening Scenarios: When Does the World's Most Critical Chokepoint Reopen?

Three scenarios for Strait reopening — bear case (3-6+ months, Brent $130-160), base case (4-8 weeks, $100-115), bull case (1-3 weeks, $85-100).

Scenario Planner Energy Strategist Geopolitical Strategist