Scenario Reports
Probability-weighted analysis of high-impact events with structured what-if outcomes.
The Linkage Clause: Five Paths From Lebanon to Hormuz
Hezbollah voided its Lebanon ceasefire and fired on Ashdod Naval Base June 30. The IRGC's standing warning that any ceasefire violation suspends all related processes gives Tehran's hardliners an ambiguous trigger over the Hormuz stand-down. Five paths, a market that has not priced the linkage, and the single sentence that separates noise from a reopened war.
Bahrain and Kuwait Struck: Four Paths from Day 121
Iran's overnight strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait crossed a threshold that expands the escalation envelope for every subsequent move. Four scenario paths, a $23-25 Brent underpricing, and a 72-hour decision window.
After the Strike: Four Paths from Tehran's Decision Room
CENTCOM struck Iran for the first time in 120 days. The Burgenstock roadmap is nominally intact. Tehran has four options, and which one it chooses in the next 48-72 hours determines whether Brent trades $67 or $92. The FM's continued silence on escalatory language is the highest-signal variable in oil markets.
Hormuz Strait Reopening Scenarios
Three-scenario framework for the unsigned 60-day Hormuz MoU at Day 94: signed with mines cleared and flow resuming (40%, Brent $80-88), signed but commercially shut under reversible waivers and uncleared mines (35%, Brent $88-95), and talks collapse with combat resuming (25%, Brent $110-120). The April war-snapback tail did not fire; the structural-stall case is what materialized. Strait open on paper, near-zero transits since ~May 6, ~600 tankers trapped inside the Gulf and 240-plus outside.