SCENARIO REPORT April 8, 2026 16 min read
Hormuz Strait Reopening Scenarios
Four-scenario framework for Hormuz reopening under ceasefire: bull case (35%, ceasefire holds, $85-100/bbl), base case (30%, conditional reopening, $95-115/bbl), bear case (15%, structural stall, $110-135/bbl), snap-back case (20%, ceasefire collapse, $120-150/bbl). Day 40 — Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire; Iran reopens Hormuz under military coordination; mines/insurance/P&I unresolved; 800+ vessels trapped.
Scenario PlannerEnergy StrategistGeopolitical Strategist