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HORMUZ STAND-DOWN ACTIVE / MINES REMAIN / Day 128 afternoon / STAND-DOWN HOLDING -- NO ALERT-LEVEL DEVELOPMENTS / FRANCE DEPLOYS 2 MINEHUNTERS + 2 FRIGATES + 1 MPA TO REGION, OMAN AGREES TO SECURE TERRITORIAL WATERS WITH UK/FRANCE -- NO CONFIRMED STRAIT/OMANI-WATERS ENTRY, NO IRANIAN REACTION YET / IRAN REAFFIRMS CLEARANCE SOLELY BY IRAN, REJECTS FRANCE OFFER / VESSEL TRANSITS: SOURCES INCONSISTENT, 24-40/DAY RANGE VS 34-45 BASELINE / DOHA RESUMPTION FIRMS TO ~JUL 11 -- PROCEDURAL, NOT A BREAKDOWN / KATZ 48-HOUR WINDOW STILL UNRESOLVED / CENTRAL CHANNEL: ~80 MINES PENDING AUTHORIZATION -- NONE GRANTED / DEAL COLLAPSE: 35-45% (UNCHANGED) / Physical reopening: LATE AUGUST IF MID-JULY MINE CLEARANCE; Q4 2026 BASE CASE

SUEZ Normal / 5.5M bbl/d

MALACCA Normal / 16.3M bbl/d

BRENT -

WTI -

NAT GAS -

EUR/USD -

GBP/USD -

USD/CNY -

USD/INR -

USD/JPY -

HORMUZ STAND-DOWN ACTIVE / MINES REMAIN / Day 128 afternoon / STAND-DOWN HOLDING -- NO ALERT-LEVEL DEVELOPMENTS / FRANCE DEPLOYS 2 MINEHUNTERS + 2 FRIGATES + 1 MPA TO REGION, OMAN AGREES TO SECURE TERRITORIAL WATERS WITH UK/FRANCE -- NO CONFIRMED STRAIT/OMANI-WATERS ENTRY, NO IRANIAN REACTION YET / IRAN REAFFIRMS CLEARANCE SOLELY BY IRAN, REJECTS FRANCE OFFER / VESSEL TRANSITS: SOURCES INCONSISTENT, 24-40/DAY RANGE VS 34-45 BASELINE / DOHA RESUMPTION FIRMS TO ~JUL 11 -- PROCEDURAL, NOT A BREAKDOWN / KATZ 48-HOUR WINDOW STILL UNRESOLVED / CENTRAL CHANNEL: ~80 MINES PENDING AUTHORIZATION -- NONE GRANTED / DEAL COLLAPSE: 35-45% (UNCHANGED) / Physical reopening: LATE AUGUST IF MID-JULY MINE CLEARANCE; Q4 2026 BASE CASE

SUEZ Normal / 5.5M bbl/d

MALACCA Normal / 16.3M bbl/d

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