What Happened

Reuters reports exclusively that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is implementing "widespread shut-ins" across UAE oil production, cutting output by more than half. The UAE produced ~3.2 million barrels per day pre-crisis; output is now below 1.5 million barrels per day.

Why It Matters

The UAE was the last major Gulf producer attempting to maintain near-normal output. ADNOC's shut-ins push total Gulf production offline past 7 million barrels per day, the largest supply disruption in history. Storage capacity across the region is approaching physical limits, forcing producers to curtail rather than risk reservoir damage from forced shutdowns.

What to Watch

  • Whether ADNOC declares force majeure on export contracts (would follow Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait)
  • Impact on Fujairah bypass terminal operations: the Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline may also be curtailed
  • Combined Gulf offline approaching the point where bypass infrastructure becomes the binding constraint