Trump declared “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete” on Truth Social on June 15, authorized the “immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” and confirmed a formal signing ceremony in Geneva, Switzerland on Friday, June 19. VP Vance will sign for the United States; Parliament Speaker Qalibaf is the named Iranian signatory. The 108-day Hormuz crisis has a framework resolution.
Oil markets reacted immediately. Brent fell 5.6% to ~$80.14, the lowest since March. WTI dropped 4.8% to ~$80.80. Both moves exceed the 5% alert threshold. The market is pricing a near-term reopening; the MOU text prices a 30-day Iranian-supervised process.
Key deal terms confirmed:
- US naval blockade: ordered lifted immediately
- Strait of Hormuz: reopens within 30 days under Iranian supervision (“Iranian arrangements”)
- Iran receives oil sanctions waivers and partial frozen asset release
- Iran commits to limits on nuclear activities and reduction in HEU stockpile
- 60-day follow-on talks cover enrichment ceiling, IAEA access, and full sanctions termination
- Deal reportedly covers Lebanon conflict “on all fronts” per Iran’s reading
What is not resolved: IRGC stand-down from audio warnings and drone operations (not confirmed as of June 15 morning). Physical reopening mechanics (de-mining, clearing 139+ redirected vessels). Final nuclear terms (deferred to 60-day talks). Israel says it is “not party” to the deal and Netanyahu is seeking a meeting with Trump to negotiate supplementary nuclear guarantees.
Watch: (1) IRGC formal stand-down — the first observable compliance signal, more diagnostic than any political statement. (2) IDF Dahiyeh operations — continued Lebanon strikes could still trigger the Iran-Lebanon tripwire even after the deal announcement. (3) Monday June 16 Brent Asia open — the first liquid market read on the weekend announcement.