Iran reversed its most significant ceasefire concession overnight. After allowing two to three ships through Wednesday, the IRGC halted all Hormuz transit, citing Israel’s strikes on Lebanon as a ceasefire violation. MarineTraffic data shows no vessels currently transiting the strait.
The trigger: Israel launched its largest attack on Lebanon since the war began. Fifty fighter jets hit 100+ Hezbollah targets across Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley in 10 minutes, killing 254 and wounding 1,165. Central Beirut was struck without warning during rush hour. Lebanon declared a national day of mourning. Netanyahu and Trump both confirmed Lebanon was excluded from the ceasefire. Pakistan’s PM Sharif insists it was included.
Hezbollah paused fire for 24 hours, then resumed Thursday morning with rockets at Kiryat Shmona, Avivim, and other northern Israeli communities. Senior Hezbollah lawmaker al-Moussawi: “Israel as usual has violated it and committed massacres across Lebanon.”
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf cited three violations: Lebanon attacks, a drone entering Iranian airspace over Lar (Fars Province, destroyed), and denial of enrichment rights. FM Araghchi: the US “must choose between a ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.”
Brent recovered to ~$97 from Wednesday’s ceasefire low of $94. The Goldman Sachs Q2 forecast cut to $90 Brent looks premature. If Hormuz stays shut, the snap-back to $110+ is a matter of days, not weeks.
Watch: Whether Iran reopens Hormuz before or after Saturday’s Islamabad talks; Vance-Araghchi-Ghalibaf meeting format and scope; Hezbollah escalation trajectory; Gulf state reactions to continued Iranian attacks; and whether the 800-vessel backlog moves at all before the two-week window expires.