IRGC forces fired ballistic missiles at a US base in the Middle East, reportedly in Jordan according to a US official, at 5:45pm ET Tuesday. US forces intercepted every missile; no American casualties were reported. Hours later, US and Saudi fighter aircraft struck logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq, opening a new front in a war that had kept direct strikes on Iranian soil paused since Jul 24.

CENTCOM framed the strikes as retaliation for more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks over the prior 72 hours, aimed at US forces and Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure, including the Jizan refinery, not solely the missile launch. Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, an Iran-backed militia network, claimed ~20 killed and 32 wounded, a preliminary figure not confirmed by CENTCOM.

The strikes hit Iraq, not Iran, keeping the direct US-Iran exchange paused while widening the proxy war geographically. That framing gives Washington and Riyadh standing justification to hit IRGC-aligned militias again regardless of what Tehran does next.

Oil rallied ~3.4-3.6% off overnight lows to Brent ~$87/bbl and WTI ~$82/bbl, short of a clean 24-hour threshold breach. Watch for militia retaliation in Iraq over the next 48-72 hours and any official Aramco statement on Jizan's status.