SCENARIO PROBABILITIES Updated: Jun 27, 2026
CENTCOM struck four Iranian targets overnight (missile/drone storage + coastal radar), the first US kinetic action in 120 days of crisis. Deal collapse probability has risen to 22-30%. The Burgenstock 60-day roadmap is nominally intact but under acute stress. Tehran's response in the next 48-72 hours determines whether the framework survives, and the decision sits in a triangle between Khamenei, the IRGC command council, and FM Araghchi -- none of whom have clean authority over the others.
ABSORB 42%
Tehran Condemns, FM Stays in Diplomatic Register, Burgenstock Intact $67-72/bbl
PROXY 33%
Controlled Proxy Escalation via Houthis/PMF, Framework Damaged $72-75/bbl
ENFORCE 17%
Second Hormuz Enforcement Action, Roadmap Dead $79-84/bbl
RETALIATE 8%
Direct Strike on US Asset, Framework Terminal $88-95/bbl

Classification: Premium Scenario Report Date: 2026-06-27 (Day 120 of closure) Analysts: Scenario Planner, Geopolitical Strategist, Defense Analyst, Energy Strategist