The 18-hour Burgenstock session ended on June 22 with Qatar and Pakistan announcing a "roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days." The market traded it as good news, Brent fell $4-5 on the OFAC waiver, and most analysis moved on.

What Burgenstock did not produce: an IRGC stand-down, a mine clearance authorization, a Phase 1 implementation timeline, or a single intermediate milestone with a date attached. It produced a framework for producing those things. The distinction matters because the market has priced the framework as though it were the delivery.

This piece is the operational ledger. What each working group needs to deliver, by when, in what sequence, and what the calendar looks like if any one of them slips.