Executive summary. The G7's October 2 reserve commitment offers a supply cushion. Its value to buyers depends on product, location and timing. Our analysis finds no basis for treating the headline quantity as wholly additional to March's program.

The IEA reported on October 2 that around 325 million of the original 400 million barrels had been released. It also described a recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports alongside severely constrained refined-product flows. That distinction explains why a barrel of crude and a barrel of usable diesel cannot be treated as equivalent relief.

Our assessment: expect uneven benefits across products and regions. Buyers should count confirmed receipts in their supply plans, track pending allocations separately and retain alternatives until delivery is credible. A simple four-month average is about 813,000 barrels per day under the calendar assumption below. It is neither a forecast of daily deliveries nor a verified increase in supply.