SCENARIO PROBABILITIES Updated: Jun 1, 2026
A 60-day MoU to reopen Hormuz reached tentative agreement May 28 but sits unsigned by both Trump and Tehran, and a signed deal is largely priced into Brent near $91. The old April war-snapback tail never fired and the structural-stall case is essentially what happened: ceasefire indefinite since Apr 21, strait open on paper, transits near zero since ~May 6, ~600 tankers trapped inside the Gulf. The live question is no longer whether the truce holds but whether a signature can clear mines, restore insurance, and actually move hulls.
SIGNED + FLOW RESUMES 40%
MoU Signed, Mines Cleared, Commercial Transit Restarts (weeks to months) $80-88/bbl
SIGNED BUT SHUT 35%
MoU Signed, Commercially Stalled - Reversible Waivers, Uncleared Mines (months) $88-95/bbl
TALKS COLLAPSE 25%
Framework Dies, Combat Resumes Around a Mined Strait (days to weeks) $110-120/bbl