Brent Ends Week at $116.72; Iran Vows to Keep US Warships Out of Gulf
BY THE HARBORMASTER · TANKERBRIEF DESK · ENERGY AND SHIPPING ANALYSIS
October 24, 2026. Weekend edition. Prices are October 23 settlements; oil futures reopen Sunday evening, New York time. Source checks completed by 09:25 UTC.
Situation update
Tehran answered this week's US strike talk with a naval red line. Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, chief of Iran's armed forces general staff, said on October 24 that Iran will "under no circumstances and at no time" permit US military vessels to enter the Persian Gulf, according to the armed forces outlet Defapress. We read it as a statement of intent; no deployment change has been reported.
Washington's messages point two ways. President Trump told reporters on October 23 that the US "could end it very quickly," then asked whether to "finish it off" or "let it wither because we're getting everything we want." The White House says the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms, while The New York Times has reported US and Israeli plans for strikes after the vote. Our midterms scenario maps the paths.
A US intelligence memo adds pressure. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on October 23 that Iran has "substantially increased" efforts to target US officials abroad, ABC News reports; Axios first reported the unclassified memo. A US official said Houthi threats and Iranian plots inform embassy staffing decisions in the region.
Saudi air defences stayed busy. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted 11 drones and a ballistic missile on October 22, then a missile aimed at Riyadh, two drones and a missile toward Khamis Mushait on October 23 (Bernama-Anadolu, Xinhua). No damage was reported from the Friday interceptions. Houthi-run al-Masirah says Saudi airstrikes killed three people near Sanaa and hit a lighthouse on Mayyun Island in the Bab-el-Mandeb; neither claim is verified. See our Saudi Arabia report for export routes.
Market impact
| Contract | October 23 settlement | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent December | $116.72/bbl | +3.1% | +6% |
| WTI December | $103.27/bbl | +3.8% | +2.3% |
Reuters ties Friday's gain to a series of Houthi attacks across Saudi Arabia, including on energy infrastructure, and to a tanker spill off Umm Al Quwain in the UAE. "Fears of supply disruptions drove the advance," said Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial. Brent's close, its highest since April 29, left a $13.45 premium over WTI.
Relief stayed small. The Energy Department authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Phillips 66's Lake Charles refinery, with the reserve at its lowest since 1982, Reuters reports. Germany's stockpiling agency EBV put reserve diesel, heating oil and crude out to tender.
Our energy view: a 6% Brent week against 2.3% for WTI puts the premium on seaborne Gulf barrels. No Saudi export loss is verified, so this is priced risk. The pre-midterm pledge removes one escalation path, but this week's drivers, Houthi fire and tanker strikes, sit outside it. A Brent settle back under the $113.17 October 22 close would signal the Saudi premium fading.
Shipping and military exposure
The newest UKMTO warning we can find is 181-26: a tanker hit by an unknown projectile 7 NM northeast of Limah, Oman, at 17:15 UTC on October 22 while leaving the strait. It continued its voyage. Our alert on the Limah strike has the detail. We could not load the UKMTO feed directly this morning, and searches found no later notice.
Reuters cites Washington Institute data showing October as the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in and near Hormuz in records going back to 2017. Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates framed the trade-off: "While there has been an increase in oil transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz, that could change at any minute."
Washington says more oil is moving. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted a Treasury chart on Friday putting crude and condensate exports through Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea at ~17 to 18 million b/d, above the January-February average, Fox News reports. Iranian state TV's claim that "non-compliant" traffic has halted, after what an IRGC Navy source called the destruction of another tanker overnight on October 22, has no transit data or UKMTO notice behind it.
Freight carries the risk. Bloomberg, via gCaptain, puts the US Gulf Coast-to-China VLCC rate at almost $60 million a voyage on October 22 by Baltic Exchange figures, after a peak of $79.6 million earlier this month.
JMIC Update 107 (October 22) still sets the levels: Hormuz SEVERE, Arabian Gulf SUBSTANTIAL, Gulf of Oman MODERATE. We found no Update 108.
What to watch
- Gulf entry: any US Navy movement into the Gulf that tests Abdollahi's line.
- UKMTO and JMIC: a notice after 181-26, or a level change in Update 108.
- Saudi infrastructure: confirmed damage at an export site would turn priced risk into lost barrels.
- Sunday open: whether Brent holds above the $113.17 October 22 settle.
Sources: Reuters via The Nation (Thailand), October 24 (settlements, weekly change, drivers, SPR, EBV, Washington Institute data, Lipow and Turnquist quotes); CNBC quote pages, October 23 settlements; Defapress, October 24 (Abdollahi); ABC News, October 22-24 (Trump remarks, DNI memo, White House statement, New York Times strike-plan report); Reuters via Al-Monitor, October 23 (date and setting of Trump remarks); Fox News, October 23 (Bessent's post); Bernama-Anadolu, October 23, and Xinhua, October 24 (coalition interceptions, al-Masirah claims); Bloomberg via gCaptain, October 23 (freight); UKMTO warning 181-26; JMIC Update 107, October 22. Analysis: Energy Strategist, Geopolitical Strategist and Maritime Analyst.