Hormuz Day 85: 'Largely Negotiated' Is Not a Signature
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SITUATION
On Saturday, May 23, President Trump posted that an agreement with Iran covering the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has “been largely negotiated, subject to finalization.” He spent the day on Oval Office calls with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, plus Israeli PM Netanyahu, all aimed at closing terms with Tehran. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir was in Tehran Friday and Saturday working the same track. Iran has not confirmed; the semi-official Fars agency points to wide remaining disagreements, and Iranian state media insists the waterway stays under Iranian control.
ACTORS & INTERESTS
| Actor | Wants | Revealed position |
|---|---|---|
| US (Trump) | A declarable win; oil lower; strait open | Announces a deal before it is signed |
| Iran | Sanctions relief, asset access, sovereignty optics | Disputes the framing; “Hormuz stays ours” |
| Gulf states | War over, transit restored, no Iranian retaliation | Brokering hard; privately wary of a thin deal |
| Pakistan | Mediator prestige | Munir shuttling Tehran to land it |
| Israel | Nuclear and missile threat capped | Outside the deal table; reserves strike option |
THE PATTERN
This claim has a track record, and it is not encouraging. Trump declared “major points of agreement” and posted that the war was “won” on March 24, then said Iran gave “most of the points” on March 30. Each near-deal preceded a kinetic flare, not a settlement: the Islamabad talks collapsed April 11 to 12, the dual blockade went up April 13, and US and Iranian forces traded fire across the strait as recently as May 7. A verbal claim of “largely negotiated” is a negotiating instrument, not a signed instrument. Watch what Tehran signs, not what Washington announces.
THE FRAMEWORK
Reported terms point to a memorandum of understanding as phase one: a ~60-day ceasefire extension, phased reopening of Gulf transit, and oil-sale waivers letting Iran export again. The asset question is where the optimism thins. US officials describe a draft that commits Washington only to negotiate the lifting of sanctions and the unblocking of Iranian funds during the window, with frozen assets staying frozen until Iran’s nuclear commitments are verified. Nuclear talks are deferred, not resolved, with an enrichment moratorium of a decade-plus still being argued over. That is a sequencing fight Iran has rejected before.
ENERGY IMPACT
The strait is still effectively shut. Open transits have run near zero since the May 6 pause, ~600 tankers sit stranded inside the Gulf, and Iran’s de facto toll regime persists. Nothing announced Saturday changes a single hull’s status. Brent has shed ~17 to 19 percent across May on ceasefire and reopening hopes, trading near $104 on Friday’s session against an April peak above $118 (markets are closed for the weekend, so that is the working reference). The risk premium is deflating ahead of the physical reality. If the MoU slips or another vessel is hit, that gap snaps back fast.
SCENARIOS
- Most likely (50%): An MoU or framework gets announced within two weeks, but physical reopening lags and stays contested.
- Escalation (30%): Talks stall on assets or sovereignty; a strait incident reprices Brent back toward $115-plus.
- Clean de-escalation (20%): A signed deal with verified transits inside 30 days.
WATCH FOR
- An Iranian signature or on-record Tehran confirmation, not Fars hedging.
- First verified merchant transits with no IRGC toll or turn-back.
- Asset-unfreeze language: negotiate-only versus delivered.
- Any May strike resuming after the calls.
- Whether Munir’s Tehran shuttle produces a named signing venue and date.