Hormuz Day 35: Shot Down
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Missing Over Iran
An F-15E Strike Eagle went down over Iranian territory on Friday, the first US combat aircraft lost since operations began February 28. Both crew members ejected. US special operations forces located and extracted the pilot from Iranian soil. The weapons systems officer has not been found. Iran is searching too, and has offered a bounty.
A rescue operation that should have been routine became a second crisis. An A-10 Warthog supporting the search took fire near the Strait of Hormuz; its pilot ejected over the Persian Gulf and was recovered. Two Black Hawk helicopters sustained small arms damage. Israel cancelled planned strikes on Iran to avoid complicating the search.
Five weeks of air superiority produced a confidence that Friday’s losses punctured. Two aircraft down, two helicopters damaged, one American missing on enemy soil. For Tehran, the shootdown is the single most valuable propaganda event of the war. For Washington, it is a 48-hour countdown compressor: the missing WSO will dominate American cable news precisely as the April 6 energy strike deadline arrives.
The Protocol
Iran and Oman are drafting a bilateral agreement to “monitor transit” through the Strait of Hormuz. Ships would need permits, licenses, and comprehensive documentation covering ownership, flag state, cargo, destination, crew composition, and AIS data. Transit fees apply.
Deputy FM Gharibabadi framed it as facilitation, not restriction. The language is regulatory. The intent is sovereign. By partnering with Oman, a fellow littoral state and traditional neutral, Iran converts its unilateral blockade into something resembling coastal-state regulation. If this protocol gains adherence, it establishes a precedent that outlasts any ceasefire.
For shipowners, the implications are immediate. Every vessel flying a Liberian or Marshall Islands flag with opaque beneficial ownership faces a new compliance burden. Chinese and Indian state-owned tonnage will comply without friction. Western-linked vessels, even those carrying whitelisted cargo, will stall on disclosure requirements. The protocol also gives Iran a kill switch: revoke permits at will, throttle approvals, extract revenue from every barrel that moves.
Forty countries met virtually at the UK’s invitation Thursday to discuss Hormuz reopening. They called for “immediate and unconditional” restoration of transit. Zero agreed to escort operations. The UN Security Council delayed its vote on Bahrain’s resolution to April 5, having watered down the language from “all necessary means” to “defensive measures” under pressure from China, Russia, and France.
Declarations without enforcement. Owners and charterers should plan accordingly.
Supply Under Fire
ADNOC suspended operations at Habshan, the UAE’s largest natural gas processing facility, after missile debris from a successful interception caused a fire. One Egyptian worker was killed. Four were injured. The facility handles ~2.5 Bcf/d of sour gas feedstock and feeds the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline. UAE effective export capacity continues to shrink.
In Kuwait, Iranian drones struck Mina Al-Ahmadi for the third time. Fires broke out across several operational units at the 466K bpd refinery. A desalination plant also took “material” damage. Pattern is clear: Gulf state hydrocarbon infrastructure is targetable and being targeted, systematically.
WTI-Brent inversion persists, with both benchmarks trading in the $107-112 range. WTI above Brent signals the market has priced US crude as the global safe barrel. Atlantic Basin crude commands a premium because it can actually be loaded and delivered. Gulf crude cannot, regardless of price.
VLCC rates are past $1M/day. All-in freight at $12-15/bbl is now structural, not temporary. Insurance at 5-10% hull value means a $120M VLCC costs $6-12M per transit. P&I clubs remain withdrawn. The $20B DFC/Chubb reinsurance facility covers steel, not voyages.
Forty-Eight Hours
Trump posted Friday that the US “hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants.” The $1.5T defense budget request, a 44% increase and the largest in US history, confirms this is institutional preparation for sustained operations, not bluff positioning.
One hundred law experts signed a letter calling power plant strikes potential war crimes. Putin and Erdogan jointly demanded an immediate ceasefire. Neither will alter the trajectory.
April 6 at 8 PM Eastern sits 48 hours away with no diplomatic framework, a missing American aircrew member, and an adversary building the administrative infrastructure to control the world’s most important waterway permanently.
| Factor | Status | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| F-15E / WSO | 1 rescued, 1 missing | Hostage risk; political pressure intensifies |
| Hormuz protocol | Iran-Oman drafting | Institutional legitimacy for blockade |
| Habshan (UAE) | Suspended | ~200K bpd condensate offline; Fujairah feed reduced |
| Mina Al-Ahmadi | 3rd strike, fire | 466K bpd refinery functionally impaired |
| April 6 deadline | 48 hours | No framework; power plants targeted |
| Brent / WTI | ~$109 / ~$111 | $110-120 into deadline; $130+ if strikes land |
| UNSC vote | Apr 5 | ”Defensive measures” only; China/Russia block force authorization |