Saturday, June 13 — Day 106 of the Hormuz Crisis.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif stated publicly on June 13 that the US and Iran have agreed on the “final, agreed-upon wording” of a peace deal, with signing expected within 24 hours. Pakistan — the lead mediating state — is now preparing for an electronic signing format. The agreement is being referred to in Pakistani media as the “Islamabad Agreement.”
The White House confirmed VP JD Vance will travel to Geneva on Sunday, June 14, to sign the memorandum of understanding. Four USAF C-17 transport aircraft have already departed for Europe with advance delegation personnel and equipment. Iran named parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf as its signatory.
Iranian FM Araghchi gave the most operationally specific Iranian signal yet: the deal would be “signed remotely before it is announced,” implying a signing mechanism is already in place and the public announcement follows execution. FM Baghaei continued to describe reports as “speculation” — the established pattern of public deniability at the spokesperson level while technical finalization proceeds at the FM level.
What to watch: Any IDF strike on Dahiyeh or Lebanese territory before Sunday is the primary deal-collapse trigger — the same mechanism that caused the June 7-8 collapse. IRGC continued firing drones at Hormuz commercial vessels June 13; CENTCOM intercepted all of them. A stand-down of IRGC drone operations June 14 would be the first observable compliance signal.
Brent crude settled ~$88 on Friday (June 12) — within deal optimism range. Monday’s Asia open will be the first market verdict on the Pakistan PM’s text confirmation. A signed deal: $75-80 test. A collapse: reversion toward $94-98.
MOU probability: 45-60% (up from 10-18%). This is the highest deal probability since the crisis began April 8.