Two hours before Trump’s deadline to destroy Iran’s power grid, the war’s first ceasefire materialized. Pakistan brokered it. PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir convinced Trump to pause; Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accepted shortly after.
The terms diverge by narrator. Trump announced a “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of Hormuz. FM Araghchi’s version: “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Iran maintains operational control. The gap between those two framings will define whether this holds.
Oil collapsed on the news. Brent fell ~14% to ~$94. WTI dropped ~16% to ~$95, its worst session since April 2020. The geopolitical risk premium compressed from ~$14/bbl to $4-6. S&P 500 futures surged 2.6%. Dow futures jumped ~970 points.
Complications emerged within hours. Kuwait intercepted 28 Iranian drones Wednesday morning targeting oil infrastructure and power stations, reporting “significant material damage.” UAE air defenses engaged missiles and drones across the country. Explosions hit Iran’s Lavan refinery and Sirri Island after the ceasefire, source unknown. Netanyahu declared Lebanon excluded from the truce; IDF operations against Hezbollah continue, contradicting Pakistan’s claim of a comprehensive ceasefire “everywhere, including Lebanon.”
Two ships began moving toward the strait Wednesday morning: the first attempted transit since the announcement. Some 800+ vessels remain trapped. Maersk called the situation one that “does not yet provide full maritime certainty.” Iraq reopened its airspace after 40 days.
Watch: Whether Iran actually permits unrestricted transit or maintains its vetting regime; Gulf state reactions to continued drone attacks; Islamabad talks Friday; Israel-Lebanon escalation outside the ceasefire scope; and whether the 800-vessel backlog can move safely through a strait still mined and contested.