Tehran called Washington’s 15-point peace proposal “maximalist and unreasonable” and issued its own five conditions to end the war: halt all US-Israeli aggression and assassinations; establish mechanisms guaranteeing the war will not resume; pay reparations for war damages; end attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and allied militias in Iraq; and secure international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Hormuz sovereignty demand transforms the waterway from a bargaining chip into a non-negotiable condition. No previous Iranian government has claimed outright sovereignty over the strait’s international shipping lanes. If this position hardens, it eliminates the premise of every Western reopening plan built on restoring freedom of navigation.
Brent crude fell 6.8% intraday to $93.45, its lowest since early March, before recovering to ~$96.68. Previous close: $100.23. Markets are pricing a ceasefire that neither side’s demands make plausible. Two days remain before Trump’s Mar 28 energy strike deadline.
Iran is simultaneously fortifying Kharg Island with MANPADs, anti-personnel mines, and anti-armor traps, per US intelligence reporting. The 82nd Airborne and 2,000 Marines are moving into theater. CENTCOM reports two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production capacity destroyed, with 92% of its largest warships sunk. After a 14-hour lull, Iran fired a new ballistic missile salvo at central Israel early March 26, injuring two.
Watch: Whether weekend Islamabad talks materialize; Mar 28 energy strike deadline; Kharg Island posture changes; market reaction if ceasefire narrative collapses.